Market Focus: Why there is no end in sight for the oil war
A temporary production reduction agreement under current conditions is not necessarily in the interest of all stakeholders in the global oil industry
This deal will not solve the huge oversupply that is currently still building-up
The oil war is not due to misunderstandings or ego plays but to the intrinsically different strategies and motives of the key players at hand.
For all these reasons, an OPEC ++ coalition cannot not be sustained over time and its impact on oil prices is likely to be marginal and disappointing.
The long view: Apocalypse now? The outlook for the global economy after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Willl the Covid-19 reshape the global economy? What are the most important hotspots and the blindspots revealed by this crisis? We tackle this issue in this article. Beyond the handling of the health crisis and the exceptional support measures designed to ensure that hundreds of millions or even billions of people around the world do not lose their livelihoods overnight, the most worrying concern are the medium- and long-term consequences of the crisis for the global economy.
The long view: What is the real economic dependence of the United States on China?
In order to better measure the impact of value chains fragmentation, we conducted an “input-output” analysis to highlight the dependence of the US economy on Chinese output, branch by branch.
Macro focus Lebanon’s debt mechanics backfire (Interview)
Economist Alexandre Kateb explains how the state has had to go into debt over the last thirty years, via its central bank, to attract foreign capital. Since trust has been broken, the banking system has been beset by numerous requests to withdraw money.
Consultant and specialist in the Arab world, Alexandre Kateb is a lecturer at Sciences-Po.
Market Focus: Argentina’s upcoming sovereign debt restructuring
Once again, Argentina is embarked on a complicated debt restructuring process. This post exposes some key facts and figure and makes some observations from the macro and legal perspectives.
Understanding the dynamics and counting the cost of the coronavirus
The spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) is currently the number one concern among healthcare specialists, policymakers, journalists, economic and market analysts and ordinary citizens alike. The elucidation of the disease’s dynamics, death toll and impact on the Chinese and on the global economy are mobilising experts and analysts both in the economics and healthcare communities. […]
The long view: What is Saudi Aramco really worth?
Saudi Aramco’s IPO was introduced as a central element of Vision 2030, the ambitious economic diversification strategy unveiled by Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in January 2016, when oil prices reached a historic low of $29 per barrel. The prospects suddenly darkened for Saudi Arabia and it was necessary to respond quickly. The crown prince’s […]
Towards a renewed partnership between the European Union and Africa
Over the past few years, the African continent has relaunched its efforts of integration, through the reform of the African Union and the launch of the AfCFTA. By 2050 the population of Africa will have doubled. By relying on its increasingly well-educated youth, it could release its extraordinary economic potential. This transformation represents an historic opportunity for binding the African and European continents to each other, something that Robert Schuman wished for several decades ago. To achieve this, it is fundamental to articulate the North-South and South-South cooperation logics in order to encourage the emergence of an economic ecosystem that is both integrated and modular. Morocco’s experience is edifying in this respect. The new European executive, after the May 2019 elections, should make integration with Africa a strategic priority. This is not only a stake for the future. It is an existential imperative for Europe, at a time when security and migration threats are intensifying. It is particularly true if Europe want to continue to have an impact in the world, when faced with giants such as China and the United States.
The two shores of the Mediterranean have better to share than the management of the migration crisis
North and South must develop a bold common policy that relies more on the dynamism of the private sector and civil societies, plead Karim Amellal and Alexander Kateb
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: the way forward
Vision 2030 intends to transform the Saudi economy – the largest Arab and second largest middle eastern economy after Turkey – and to reduce its dependence on oil. Since its launch in Spring 2016, it managed to attract a great deal of attention. It aimed to tackle many of the problems that impede the economy […]